Abstract
The aim of the study is to improve the reliability of the forecast for the time series in accounting systems. Ex- pansion of the classification of time series includes the introduction of a new class and subclasses of time series, for which a distinctive feature is the presence of a prolonged period due to the inertia of the process and zeroing of indica- tors at the beginning of a new planning period. A technique is proposed that makes it possible to predict the values of a time series with prolonged periods at the time of summing up. The technique is based on the possible proportionality of the rate of data accumulation. The proposed methodology has been tested on the example of monitoring and forecasting the indexing of publications in the international Scopus database. The results of the application of the proposed meth- odology showed that with the accumulation of data in the course of continuous monitoring, the forecast is adjusted due to a change in the trend. The reliability of the forecast can be checked after the end of the control period.
Keywords
time series, classification of time series, prolongation period, planning publication activity, forecasting time series values.
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